Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

How reliable is the info you use everyday?

Whilst there are a few race tipping services available today that are actually pretty good, many simply will NOT make you any money.

They will promise the earth through slick advertising but simply will not deliver long term profits. A common advertising trick is to offer fantastic strike rates. The truth is that strike rates can be artificially inflated simply by providing more tips in a race or selecting more races with shorter priced favourites.

The more runners selected or the shorter the price, the greater the strike rate.

For example, if you are comparing two services and one, Service A of them tips 3 selections per race at 60% strike rate and the other Service B tips one selection per race at 40% strike rate, which one is the better service?

Trying to compare strike rates alone is hopeless. In order to answer the question of which service is better you absolutely MUST know what the returns are. Ask yourself: Would you rather have a 60% strike rate and a 10% LOSS on turnover or a 40% strike rate and a 10% PROFIT on turnover?

But, how is that possible? Surely having a better strike rate is a better deal?

Lies-Damned-Lies-and-Statistics.pdf (145kB)