Taking the long term view

What is the Long Term View?

Throughout these series of articles we consistently stressed that in order to win, punters need to take a long-term view. But really what is a long term view, and why is this long term view so important?

Let’s define a long term view as at least 12 months betting action. The reason we choose twelve months is that statistically speaking:

• the more data points you have the more confidence you can have in your forecast
• you need at least 100 data points to make any meaningful predictions.

Although twelve months is a convenient (but arbitrary) number, we can make some reasonable predictions from such a data set.

Statistically, trying to make conclusions from one good (or bad) day on the punt is a fool’s errand.

Unfortunately that is exactly what most punters try to do. If they have a bad day on the punt, they blame the selection process and try something new.

This is one of the main reasons why punters do only one thing consistently…lose.

The fact of the matter is that there will be winning days and losing days. The importance of the Long Term View is that by understanding the selection process and the random fluctuations around it, you will not panic after a losing day or two. When you are in a losing run, you will be mentally prepared for the winning run that is to follow.

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